3 Comments Posted on '08 Election, Democrats, Liberals, Republicans

not so fast

You know that conventional wisdom that this overwhelming Democratic turnout in the primary will lead to certain electoral success in November? Not so fast. The Washington Times found some researchers who insist that’s there’s no coorelation there. Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics says that, at best, the connection is unproven, and that the financial advantage Obama currently enjoys would have more significant impact on John McCain’s chances in November than the Democrat primary turnout numbers. I agree.

It’s not that the enthusiasm shown by the Democrats for their two candidates (but mostly for Obama) shouldn’t be a cause for concern for Republicans going into the general election in November.  What we have seen so far is that nothing is guaranteed for the Democrats, unless John McCain succeeds in completely alienating the rest of the conservatives who were resigned to voting for him with his stupid climate change nonsense.  I’m not ruling out that possibility, by the way.  McCain is trying very hard to separate himself from George W. Bush, and he might just succeed.  I can see how this would be a strategy his internal polling might suggest, but he won’t win with just Democrats and independents.  He still needs conservatives and other Republicans, even though he would like to pretend we don’t exist.

Obama will lose a significant amount of his appeal if he selects Hillary as VP.   She represents what has become the old politics.  It’s not 1992 anymore.  Many Obama supporters weren’t even paying attention during the Clinton years (with a few notable exceptions). He doesn’t need her, and she makes him less electable than he is now.  You can’t talk about the new politics and embrace a Washington insider like Hillary.  I know the Democrats want to end this process, but this isn’t the way to do it.  He can withstand the attacks that the Clintons have thrown out there.  She hasn’t put a glove on him, even with all this bad publicity he has gotten lately.  Obama can wait for the nomination.  He knows that he will eventually win it.

More disturbing for the Republicans and John McCain is that all these side issues that are affecting Obama will be old news by the time the election rolls around.  We need a better game plan than the Clintons had, and a candidate willing to make the case against Obama.  Is McCain that guy?  Stay tuned.

Posted on Random Musings

the new york times gets something right

The title of their latest op-ed is “Rethinking Ethanol”. They suggest that Congress might want to consider ending the corn ethanol tax break as well as the mandates for increased ethanol production in the 2007 energy bill. Now, as a conservative I’m generally for most tax breaks, but in this case, I’m not sure that corn ethanol delivers everything it promises for all the government subsidies that industry receives. The New York Times agrees with me, but in its own unique way, pointing out that the ethanol producers are making too much money for government subsidies, tax breaks, etc.

They have two objections. The first, and most important, is that diversion of corn production to fuel rather than food leads to global food shortages — and this isn’t helpful when food prices are already on the rise due to higher demand. Why did it take the New York Times to point this out? Why isn’t this common knowledge? The second objection is that some biofuels, such as corn ethanol, may in fact accelerate global warming. How about that? Corn ethanol could be harmful to the environment. I mock the New York Times for their lateness to the party, but I welcome the skepticism I see here. It’s a good thing when conventional wisdom on the environment is challenged, even if I have to credit that challenge to the New York Times.

Posted on Democrats, Liberals, Republicans

democrats attempt to punish big oil

They might want to remember what happened last time we imposed a windfall profits tax.

Interesting findings from a 2006 Congressional Research Service Report (quoted here). Full PDF here.

This is the most interesting part:

Reinstating the windfall profit tax would reduce recent oil industry windfalls due to high crude and petroleum prices but could have several adverse economic effects. If imposed as an excise tax, the WPT would increase marginal production costs and be expected to reduce domestic oil production and increase the level of oil imports, which today is at nearly 60% of demand. Crude prices would not tend to increase. Some have proposed an excise tax on both domestically produced and imported oil as a way of mitigating the negative effects on petroleum import dependence. Such a broad-based WPT would tend to reduce import dependence, but it would lead to higher crude oil prices and likely to oil industry profits, potentially undermining its original goals.

Because the pure corporate profits tax is relatively neutral in the short run — few, if any, price and output effects occur because marginal production costs are unchanged in the short run — a possible option would be a corporate income surtax on the upstream operations of crude oil producers. Such a tax that would recoup any recent windfalls with less adverse economic effects; imports would not increase because domestic production would remain unchanged. In the long run, such a tax is a tax on capital; it reduces the rate of return, thus reducing the supply of capital to the oil industry.

So US oil companies would have reduced profits if a windfall profits tax was ever enacted, but according to this study, production costs would go up and the level of imports would also increase.  In other words, it would cost more to produce domestic oil, and we would end up importing even more oil than we do now.  Great solution.

If we tax both our own oil production as well as the imports, it might level the playing field (and by that, I mean punishing everyone equally).  It also could lead to higher crude oil prices and keep those oil company profits high.  These aren’t the best solutions to high gas prices.  Congress needs to figure out that high taxes discourage production, and if they really want to increase domestic oil production,  they should allow domestic drilling and let the oil companies build more refineries.

The Democrats are just saying what they think people want to hear.  That’s common enough for politicians.  What annoys me more than anything is that I don’t see much fight in Republicans to challenge the Democrats on any of their stupid proposals.

Posted on Conservatives, Republicans

this is not good

House Republicans are voting in favor of entitlements and earmarks, and not even trying to resist all these new spending proposals by Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats.  So says Bob Novak.  Maybe it’s fair to blame the Republican leadership for this, although I’m not sure how much they can do, because it’s clear that the fiscal conservatives are outnumbered.  That’s one reason why the Republican brand will remain damaged through the November election.  We are acting no different from the Democrats on this, although I suppose that the few Republicans opposing all this new spending should be given some credit.  Of course they never had a fiscal conservative in the White House to begin with, so that makes the fight against spending even more difficult.

Posted on '08 Election, Conservatives, Republicans

conservative cred

My favorite senator Jim DeMint has it, and he’s willing to help out John McCain. Senator DeMint is the kind of conservative that McCain should pick for VP. We need DeMint where he is now, but someone like him would be awesome as second in line to McCain.

Here he is defending McCain’s health care plan.

Why not nationalize health care and allow the government to control the entire system? Because as Americans we believe in the individual and in freedom.

Since the dawn of our nation, Americans have resisted government control over their daily lives. Unlike Europeans who have mortgaged their futures in the name of nationalized health care, we have an innate distrust of big government schemes. We have seen time and time again that the greatness of our nation comes from its people, not from the government. Perhaps most importantly, we understand, as Thomas Jefferson understood, that “Government big enough to supply everything you need is big enough to take everything you have.” Jefferson went on to explain that “the course of history shows that as a government grows, liberty decreases.”

The history that Jefferson observed then is the same that we do today. Those principles still hold true, and as we consider the health care crisis we face today we would do well as Americans to bear these thoughts in mind.

Do we want a solution that offers American more freedom, more choice and more competition? Or do we forsake our principles and follow the path of the Europeans, which has resulted in rationed health care, less choice, less freedom and future fiscal ruin?

I’m much more confident that Senator DeMint understands the way conservatism is supposed to work when applied to the federal bureaucracy than I am in McCain’s grasp of the concept. But his endorsement of McCain’s health care plan goes a long way with me, and I’m sure, with many of my fellow conservatives.

Posted on '08 Election, Republicans

respect this

I have made no secret of the fact that Senator McCain and I have some serious disagreements on policy issues, but I have nothing but respect for McCain’s military service. That impression was reinforced by reading Karl Rove’s account of some of McCain’s adventures in Vietnam. It’s a must read for those who want to know more about McCain’s background, and I agree with Rove that he needs to make more of his personal bio part of the campaign. We know enough about his policy positions, and not much about his personal story. His campaign would benefit from making this side of McCain more visible, and it will help his chances in the general election, no matter what happens with the Democrats.

Posted on '08 Election, Democrats, Liberals

he’s not going away quietly

And after all John McCain’s complaints about the NCGOP and how mean and nasty they were to bring up Senator Obama’s relationship with Jeremiah Wright, the man himself says that his relationship with his former pastor is a “legitimate political issue“. Then it should be ok for Republicans to bring it up in ads, right?

Here’s the exchange between Obama and Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday:

WALLACE: I wasn’t sure whether I was even going to ask you about your former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, but he made it easy for me because he’s now begun this –

OBAMA: Right.

WALLACE: — public campaign to redeem his reputation. The other night he said to Bill Moyers that he has been the target of a smear campaign.

Question: Do you think that Reverend Wright is just the victim here?

OBAMA: No. I think that people were legitimately offended by some of the comments that he had made in the past. The fact that he is my former pastor I think makes it a legitimate political issue. So I understand that.

I think that it is also true that to run a snippet of 30-second sound bites, selecting out of a 30-year career, simplified and caricatured him, and caricatured the church. And I think that was done in a fairly deliberate way.

And that is unfortunate, because as I’ve said before, I have strongly denounced those comments that were the subject of so much attention. I wasn’t in church when he made them. But I also know that I go to church not to worship the pastor, to worship God. And that ministry, the church family that’s been built there, does outstanding work, has been I think applauded for its outreach to the poor.

He built that ministry. And I think that, you know, people need to take a look at the whole church and the whole man in making these assessments.

The good and bad news for Senator Obama is that we will get to hear more from Rev. Wright, and we can get the full context we need to make a judgment call on whether all this negative press Wright’s been getting is deserved. I say that it is. He isn’t taking back any of the inflammatory things he’s previously said, and he keeps adding more fuel to the fire as he attempts to defend his reputation and his church. Even though I disagree with Rev. Wright on 99% of the stuff he says, he did say one thing to Bill Moyers and in his speech to the National Press Club that I agree with — he said that Barack is just a politician and that he does what he does for political reasons. That’s the point that we have been trying to make — there’s nothing special about Barack other than his ability to wow people with his speeches. He believes the same nonsense on policy that Hillary does, and the left won’t see much difference in a President Obama as opposed to a President Hillary. No doubt Barack is a nice guy, but that’s not enough to make him President.

2 Comments Posted on '08 Election, Republicans

mccain is wrong

I’m not sure why John McCain is overreacting so much to the North Carolina GOP ad.   It is an ad that mentions Obama’s association with Jeremiah Wright and pointing out that Democratic candidates for governor Bev Perdue and Richard Moore support Obama.  Oh yeah, and the ad might have said a little something about Rev. Wright being too extreme for North Carolina.  There’s nothing racist about that.  There’s nothing controversial about that.  In fact, I’m not entirely sure this would be an effective ad.  The only thing that’s keeping this story going is that Rev. Wright feels obligated to defend himself against the injustice of bloggers and media people reporting on what he actually said.  If he didn’t,  I honestly believe this issue would go away.  John McCain won’t run ads on it, based on what we have seen this week from him.

I don’t think the ad is going to work because this is similar to the argument Republicans were trying to make in 2006 — beware Nancy Pelosi and the EVIL Democrats, because they will do all sorts of horrible things to make your life miserable.  Or something like that.    Did that work in ’06?  Did we gin up enough reasonable fear of scary Democrats to drive the vote for Republicans?  Umm…no.  Republicans were unmotivated and the undecided were willing to take a chance on the Democrats because the ruling party failed.  The Republican brand has been damaged, and it’s still damaged.  John McCain is doing nothing to help the Republican party rebuild that brand, and he doesn’t seem to have an interest in making that attempt.

This is why I believe John McCain overreacted to the ad.  He’s more concerned about losing those Democrats and independents than he is in keeping the Republicans he has won by default from deserting him in the general election.  It’s one thing to say that this isn’t the ad he would have chosen to run,  and another to say that the NCGOP is “out of touch”.  McCain still doesn’t get it.  He’s the one who doesn’t understand conservatives, and it’s clear that he doesn’t respect us.  Could the NCGOP have created a different ad based on pointing out differences between Democrats and Republicans on issues?  Yes, and I would have preferred that.  But McCain doesn’t have the right to demand that they pull the Wright ad.

2 Comments Posted on '08 Election, Democrats, Liberals

still alive

Hillary Clinton got her needed Pennsylvania win over Barack Obama, and the final margin will probably be around 8 points. It does give her enough of an argument to keep going in the race, and many Republicans hope she will prolong this contest a few more months, even though we know that Barack will prevail in the end. It is surprising that even with all Barack’s strengths as a campaigner and his overall charisma, his lead is not expanding by a much wider margin over Hillary Clinton. Hillary is right when she says that Barack can’t seem to close the deal with Democrats. It should be a no-brainer for them, with all the negatives Hillary’s carrying around. She has stayed in this race long enough to expose some of Barack’s weaknesses, and that’s another reason why Hillary isn’t giving up yet. She’s holding out hope that he will make a more serious mistake than the minor gaffes we have seen from him so far. It could happen. However, it’s a hard case to make to the superdelegates that she will be the strongest candidate against McCain in November if she loses the popular vote and the delegate count to Barack Obama.

Update: The final numbers are closer to 10 points.  It still may not make much difference to the final outcome, but Hillary’s still in and not going away any time soon.

Posted on '08 Election, Democrats, Liberals

untouchable

Sensei Kreese has issued the marching orders.  No one touches the prima donna until the tournament.  Is that clear?  No hard punches.  No hard questions.  Let the man skate.  Keep the kid gloves on, because we don’t want to hurt the guy’s chances of becoming President.  This may sound harsh to some of my friends on the left (and one person in particular), but the free ride Barack Obama has been getting for the majority of his run for the White House is flat-out ridiculous and it’s about time someone started asking him questions that he can’t answer from the Democrat talking-point quote book.  It doesn’t do him any good to complain about the press coverage.  If he can’t handle the few hard questions he’s getting now, he’s got some work to do before he is ready to handle White House press conferences.

Tony Resko shouldn’t matter.  The Rev. Wright and his controversial comments shouldn’t matter.  Louis Farrakan shouldn’t matter.  Barack Obama doesn’t have official endorsements from these folks, so it’s perfectly clear that Barack Obama doesn’t agree with Rev. Wright and Louis Farrakan and some of the outrageous things they have said in the past.  At least that is the answer Obama’s supporters have when we dare to bring this stuff up. Then there’s the question of William Ayers.  Maybe most of this was part of breaking into Chicago politics, for Obama to temporarily associate himself with some shady characters in order to get elected.  That’s a possibility.  But it’s fair to ask questions about these things.

Here’s why.  All along Barack Obama has been telling us that he is the candidate with the best judgment, because he was opposed to the Iraq war from the beginning.  Should this be the only factor we use to determine how good Barack’s judgment would be as President?  Do we know exactly what he will do as President?  Of course not.  We have to look at what he has said, and we have to look at what he’s done in the past.  Obama is still undefined to some degree, so we still have to try to fill in the blanks. Are we now saying that you can’t really judge a person by the company he keeps? It’s no reflection on Barack himself that all these no-good creeps like him.  Got it.   Sometimes a President can get the good guys and bad guys mixed up.  Former Presidents like Jimmy Carter find this distinction rather difficult.  (And yes, Chris, even Bush does it. There.  Happy now? 🙂 )  My concern about Obama is that he hasn’t shown much aptitude for determining that in his own life, and what would he do when confronted with foreign heads of state who have every incentive to try to fool him?

Then there’s the perfectly legitimate question of why Hamas thinks Barack Obama would be supportive of their interests. We aren’t calling Barack Obama a terrorist. We don’t think he’s a terrorist. We do think that he will misread the intentions of groups like Hamas, people like Ahmadinejad, and terrorist-supporting countries like Iran and Syria. That’s the concern, and it’s a legitimate concern. Foreign policy is a tricky business and we just don’t think he’s ready for that challenge. I just hope that if he becomes President, he will appoint some folks to his foreign policy team that can help him with this.

Don’t misinterpret this as a shredding of the future Democratic nominee. We are actually doing you a favor by talking about Rev. Wright and flag pins, because the more time we spend on the stuff Democrats consider trivial, less time will be spent finding out how much he doesn’t know or understand about foreign policy and the economy. Besides, isn’t it better that Obama gets these questions out of the way now, rather than waiting until closer to the election? It’s not entirely unreasonable to believe that all this will be old news when the election rolls around, and we will get back to healthcare and the economy soon enough. Maybe the media has finally decided to start asking Obama questions that he can’t answer in a soundbite. There’s nothing wrong with that.