i just don’t see how anyone in the media originally missed this part of the excerpt from the National Intelligence Estimate, since it was in the first paragraph. here’s a reading comprehension exercise for them. see if you can figure out what this means, ladies and gentlemen of the press. full text here(pdf).

United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al- Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.

there’s no way that our counterterrorism efforts have been effective. after all, we have been so distracted by the iraq war that we have forgotten about al-Qa’ida. right? if you want to accept the NIE report, then you might want to look at everything it says, including the parts that support the President’s view of the war on terrorism. there is good news and bad news in these Key Judgments which have now been declassified. the analysis that we have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations is something that the media wants to gloss over. that is a positive thing…and we need to acknowledge any ground that we have gained in this war on terror.

there is still work to be done. as this excerpt points out, jihadists are adapting to our counterterrorism measures. we need to be continually re-assessing strategy and adapting to new enemy tactics. our vigilance in this area should remain constant, no matter which party controls congress or the white house.

it goes on to suggest that “Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit…” what kind of responsive political systems would promote this greater pluralism? democracy could be one of those systems. it doesn’t necessarily have to be of a jeffersonian stripe. any system that allows for individual rights and freedoms would have the desired effect. while i am not completely sold on the democracy project, i don’t see the current alternatives as ones that will allow Muslim countries to achieve this greater pluralism.

more from the NIE Key Judgments:

We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti- American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.

it’s a positive sign that jihadists are less organized and that they don’t have a global master plan right now. these are simply predictions, and not statements based on what has already occurred. maybe the classified part has the factual basis for these predictions, but it isn’t in this document. that said, it does make sense to predict that when terrorist groups are more spread out, it will be harder to track them down. that’s a no-brainer to me. no news here. move on.

now to the part that has the left beside itself with excitement:

• The Iraq conflict has become the ?cause celebre? for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. (but wait, there’s more!)Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.
• Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the Iraq ?jihad;? (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims –?all of which jihadists exploit.

let’s talk about those four underlying factors. entrenched grievances existed in the middle east and elsewhere before the wars in iraq and afghanistan. some are real. some are imagined. whatever the case may be, those grievances can’t solely be blamed on the war in iraq. of course jihadists are drawn to iraq. if they suffer a defeat in iraq, it’s a huge loss for the whole terrorist/jihadist movement. progress does need to be made with social, political, and economic reforms, but it’s going to be a slow process, and i don’t know how much we can do to expedite that process. the jihadists aren’t totally stupid (although they may be hung up on that 72 virgins thing). whatever motivation they can use to encourage public sentiment their way, they will use.

it is insanity to expect that there is something we can do to make the jihadists like us or to make them stop killing innocent people. we can’t accommodate their desire to convert everyone to islam, and we cannot appease their militant tendencies. the only answer is to thwart their plans by any means necessary. both republicans and democrats must be committed to fighting this enemy, because the jihadists are not going away.

tags: NIE, iraq, war on terror, jihadists