You know that conventional wisdom that this overwhelming Democratic turnout in the primary will lead to certain electoral success in November? Not so fast. The Washington Times found some researchers who insist that’s there’s no coorelation there. Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics says that, at best, the connection is unproven, and that the financial advantage Obama currently enjoys would have more significant impact on John McCain’s chances in November than the Democrat primary turnout numbers. I agree.
It’s not that the enthusiasm shown by the Democrats for their two candidates (but mostly for Obama) shouldn’t be a cause for concern for Republicans going into the general election in November. What we have seen so far is that nothing is guaranteed for the Democrats, unless John McCain succeeds in completely alienating the rest of the conservatives who were resigned to voting for him with his stupid climate change nonsense. I’m not ruling out that possibility, by the way. McCain is trying very hard to separate himself from George W. Bush, and he might just succeed. I can see how this would be a strategy his internal polling might suggest, but he won’t win with just Democrats and independents. He still needs conservatives and other Republicans, even though he would like to pretend we don’t exist.
Obama will lose a significant amount of his appeal if he selects Hillary as VP. She represents what has become the old politics. It’s not 1992 anymore. Many Obama supporters weren’t even paying attention during the Clinton years (with a few notable exceptions). He doesn’t need her, and she makes him less electable than he is now. You can’t talk about the new politics and embrace a Washington insider like Hillary. I know the Democrats want to end this process, but this isn’t the way to do it. He can withstand the attacks that the Clintons have thrown out there. She hasn’t put a glove on him, even with all this bad publicity he has gotten lately. Obama can wait for the nomination. He knows that he will eventually win it.
More disturbing for the Republicans and John McCain is that all these side issues that are affecting Obama will be old news by the time the election rolls around. We need a better game plan than the Clintons had, and a candidate willing to make the case against Obama. Is McCain that guy? Stay tuned.